October 8, 2025

Is the mighty US economy too hooked on tech investments? According to Oxford Economics’ lead economist, Adam Slater, the answer is a big yes! Slater shared with Fortune that the US economy’s growth this year has been powered almost entirely by the tech sector. Without it, the GDP would have 'barely grown' in early 2025. Sounds like the tech sector is the engine driving America’s economic train! But hold on—this turbo boost is risky business. Slater warned that if the tech sector slows down, US growth could drop to a mere 0.8% in 2026, which is dangerously close to recession. "US households’ record stock holdings could increase the risk of financial strain if valuations decline," he said. In simpler words, if tech stocks fall, many American families might feel the pinch. Oxford Economics imagined two gloomy scenarios. First, a US-focused tech slowdown with little global fuss could still slow global growth from 2.5% to 2% by 2026. Second, a harsher global shock, like the one back in 2002, would drop world GDP to 1.7%. Countries like Mexico, Canada, Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea, and Malaysia could also face serious economic pain. Meanwhile, MarketWatch quoted Moody’s Mark Zandi, who flagged that the US might already be sliding into recession territory. A whopping 22 states plus Washington, DC, are showing signs of weakening economies with rising job losses. Big states like California and New York are struggling, and Georgia is surprisingly in recession due to fewer people moving there because of high housing prices. On the bright side, Pennsylvania is punching above its weight, thanks to strong education and healthcare sectors. But Zandi points fingers at economic policies, especially tariffs from the Trump administration, which disrupted supply chains and scared companies away from expanding. Plus, fewer new workers and federal job cuts in Washington, DC, have made things worse. So, is the US economy on a shaky cliff, balancing on tech investment? Time will tell, but Oxford Economics’ warnings should have everyone watching closely. After all, when the tech magic loses its sparkle, the whole world might feel the chill!

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Tags: Us economy, Tech sector, Economic growth, Recession warning, Stock market, Investment,