September 16, 2025

Russia’s oil monopoly Transneft has shouted a warning to producers: get ready for lower oil output! This follows fierce drone attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s vital oil ports and refineries, sources told Reuters on Tuesday. Kyiv is intensifying these air raids to block Russia’s war funds and shake Moscow’s grip on its oil income as peace talks stall. Oil and gas make up 33% to 50% of Russia’s federal budget revenue, making this sector Russia’s money powerhouse. Ukrainian drones have struck at least ten Russian refineries, cutting the nation's refining power by almost 20% at one point. The Baltic Sea’s top ports, Ust-Luga and Primorsk, were also hit hard, said Ukrainian military and Russian insiders. While Russia has stayed quiet publicly, Transneft, which controls over 80% of Russian oil pipelines, has recently restricted oil storage space in its pipeline network, sources close to Russian oil firms revealed. Worryingly, Transneft told producers they might have to accept less oil if more damage hits their infrastructure. This could mean Russia, which pumps 9% of the world’s oil, will be forced to reduce output, said three anonymous industry insiders. Transneft declined to comment. The West has slammed Russia with heavy sanctions focusing on its oil and gas industries since the Ukraine invasion. But Russia slyly reroutes most of its oil exports to Asia, counting on buyers like India and China. Last week’s bold drone hit on Primorsk—the biggest Russian oil port—forced a temporary shutdown. Primorsk can export over 1 million barrels daily, more than 10% of Russia’s total oil supply. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called these strikes “the sanctions that work the fastest.” Though Reuters couldn’t verify damage fully, Primorsk partially resumed operations by Saturday, though full repairs could take time. August’s Ust-Luga drone attack already cut Russia’s Baltic export capacity. Meanwhile, OPEC+ including Russia planned to increase oil production from 9.344 million barrels per day in August to 9.449 million bpd this month. But analysts worry. J.P. Morgan warned, “Russia’s ability to ramp up oil production is now under threat due to limited storage capacity.” Goldman Sachs added refinery outages will cause crude build-up and limit higher production. Still, Asian demand for Russian oil remains strong, so any output dip might be modest. In short, Ukraine’s daring drone strikes are rattling Russia’s oil lifeline, threatening one of the Kremlin’s biggest cash machines just as Moscow tries to push higher exports. Will these attacks force a big cut in the world’s ninth-largest oil producer? The next months could tell a dramatic tale of energy battles on the global stage.

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Tags: Russia oil, Transneft, Ukraine drone attack, Oil production cut, Primorsk port, Energy sanctions,