October 6, 2025

Hold onto your seats! President Donald Trump has dropped a big warning bomb — if the Supreme Court cancels his famous tariffs, disaster could hit big time. Why? Because the US might have to pay back most of the huge $165 billion collected in customs duties so far this year. But here’s the twist: getting that money back won’t be a cakewalk. Refunds come as slow, old-fashioned paper checks, causing a potential bureaucratic headache that no one wants. Trump loves those tariffs and said they made America “very rich again.” He and his team have even talked about using that cash to pay the national debt, help farmers, or even send rebate checks to Americans! So, he’s unlikely to give up those funds easily. If the Supreme Court rules against these tariffs — which it will discuss in November — expect the government to quickly bring back tariffs through other ways. Experts like Lynlee Brown from EY warn, “Customs isn’t just going to hand importers a bunch of money.” The drama has kept companies and markets on edge since Trump started his tariff trade war. Some importers, like Harley Sitner of Peace Vans in Seattle, have almost given up hope of seeing refunds. Harley says, “I have zero faith we’d ever get anything. Just zero.” He explains how surprise tariff bills, sometimes months after receiving goods, have ruined his importing plans. Tariff charges can be huge, like the $1,164 fee on a $2,324 shipment from Germany. Even Wall Street firms are sniffing around, hoping to buy claims for these tariff refunds just to get a piece of the pie. Most of the $95 billion rise in customs duties from last year comes from Trump’s tariffs on many countries starting August, says Bloomberg. Two lower courts have already said Trump used the wrong law to impose these tariffs. If the Supreme Court agrees, half of this year’s customs duties might be refunded—but how? The government still runs tariff operations even during shutdowns. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) usually approves refunds, but importers must file tricky paperwork on time. Most refunds today come as old paper checks, and the government has only started changing that recently. Without major speeding up, millions of paper checks could flood mailboxes, says customs expert Tom Gould. But there's a scare: some refund checks have been stolen from mail and sold on the dark web before cashing. Foreign importers also face delays as refunds are only sent to US banks, creating more hurdles. The government could speed things up by using digital data to spot refunds automatically—CBP has done this with other programs. But it could also make the process tough, forcing importers to file lawsuits or complex forms with heaps of proof. Importers should save all their import data and deadlines carefully, advice from expert Brown, to fight for their refunds. Even logistics add confusion. If an importer uses big couriers like FedEx or UPS, these companies get the refund checks, not the actual owner, setting up possible disputes. So, the curtain is still up on this tariff drama. Will the Supreme Court pull the plug? And if they do, will importers get their cash back or just more headaches? Stay tuned for November’s big showdown!

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Tags: Trump tariffs, Supreme court, Customs duties, Refunds, Trade war, Us imports,