September 29, 2025

Indian stock markets ended a tough week with a 2.7% loss, hit hard by IT and pharma shares after US President Donald Trump announced higher H1-B visa fees and tariffs on pharma products. This shock made investors jittery. When markets open Monday, multiple triggers, both local and global, will shape the mood.

The stock exchanges will shut on Thursday for Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti and Dussehra holidays. On Friday, the Nifty made a small comeback, climbing 236.15 points (0.95%) to close at 24,654.70.

Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart, called last week “among the toughest for equities in 2025” so far. He said that while benchmark indices tumbled sharply, the broader market suffered even more. The Nifty fell below important moving averages again but has been stuck in a volatile range, swinging wildly without settling.

Here are the key things to watch when markets return:

RBI MPC Meeting: The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee starts its three-day meeting Monday, with the decision due on Wednesday, October 1. Experts expect the repo rate to stay steady at 5.5%.

Tariff Clarity on Pharma: Market nerves were stirred by US tariff news, but reports say these may only hit patented and branded drugs, sparing generics. Analysts feel the initial fall was mostly due to panic. Still, Crisil Intelligence warned that high US tariffs on Indian exports pose a big risk that could hurt both sales and investments.

US Markets: Wall Street closed higher on Friday after inflation data matched expectations. The Dow gained nearly 300 points, S&P 500 rose almost 39 points, and Nasdaq jumped 99 points. However, all three lost ground over the full week. Indian markets will likely follow cues from US stocks.

Busy IPO Week: Investors will be spoiled for choice with 20 IPOs scheduled, including big names like Glottis, Fabtech Technologies, and Advance Agrolife. Several SME IPOs launch Monday and Tuesday, such as Vijaypd Ceutical and Sheel Biotech.

Foreign Investment Flow: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were big sellers, offloading ₹19,570 crore worth of stocks in the week. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) stepped in as buyers, purchasing ₹16,200 crore. On Friday alone, FIIs sold ₹5,687 crore and DIIs bought ₹5,843 crore. Year-to-date, FIIs have sold a massive ₹1.48 lakh crore.

Technical Outlook: Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking, said heavy selling in big index names sped up Nifty’s fall. The index is close to important support around 24,400. Mid- and small-cap stocks are also correcting, hurting investor mood. He advised being cautious and focusing on strong companies.

Rupee vs Dollar: The Indian rupee hit its lowest level in weeks, closing at 88.7175 per dollar on Friday—a 0.7% weekly drop and its sharpest since August. Traders blame US tariffs and visa fee hikes which may cut trade, remittances, and investments. The RBI’s intervention kept the fall from being worse, but a slow decline is expected.

Crude Oil: Oil prices rose over 4% in the week due to Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s energy facilities, forcing Moscow to limit fuel exports. WTI crude settled at $65.19 per barrel, down slightly on Friday, while Brent crude closed higher at $70.13. This rise in oil prices can worsen inflation by pushing up transport and raw material costs.

In short, the Indian market’s roller-coaster ride continues amid global tensions, tariff surprises, and major economic events. Investors, buckle up! (Disclaimer: The experts’ views here do not represent The Economic Times.)

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Tags: Indian stock market, Nifty, Us tariffs, H1-b visa, Rbi mpc, Ipo,