August 19, 2025

Indian refiners usually order oil about a month before the shipment loading, and it takes roughly another month for the tankers to reach Indian ports. Now, with US President Donald Trump planning a possible 25% tariff on Russian oil by the end of this month, these refiners are hitting the pause button. Some are delaying their orders for shipments that would arrive in September. Why the wait? Because they want to understand how Trump's penalty could shake up their oil deals. A refinery executive told ET, "We haven't awarded any tender for Russian oil for September loading yet," but hinted that things could move in the coming days. The looming tariffs make it tricky to make quick moves. The meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska added little clarity. Trump said, "If I have to do it, I'll do it. Maybe I won't have to do it," showing his uncertain stance on penalties called secondary sanctions. Indian Oil chairman AS Sahney shared that the government hasn't told refiners what to do about buying Russian oil. Refiners themselves are watching the market and making their own calls. India depends heavily on Russian crude, importing about 1.7 million barrels a day in 2025—this is roughly 35% of India's total crude needs according to energy tracker Vortexa. One industry expert said replacing this huge chunk quickly would be nearly impossible. "If such a large supply disappears from the market, it will create tension and lead to price increases," he warned. Right now, global oil prices are eased by an oversupply, averaging $66 per barrel. But, as another refinery executive noted, "India's abrupt change could tighten the market. While those volumes will eventually find buyers, it may take 2-3 months for global trade to rebalance, affecting prices in the meantime." Only a few countries demand oil as fiercely as India. If India steps back from Russian oil, the supply would need to be shared among buyers from China to the European Union. The big question remains: will the US delay the tariff or go full throttle? Until then, Indian refiners are watching, waiting, and ready to adapt in this thrilling global oil saga.

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Tags: Indian refiners, Russian oil, Us tariffs, Donald trump, Oil imports, Global oil prices,