US Moves Away From Rules-Based World Order, Challenging Middle Powers and Allies
January 25, 2026
At a 2002 conference in New York, a young Pakistani student expressed a sharp view: "If you live on the Barbarian fringes of Empire, you experience American power as something quite different. It can do anything to you, with impunity… And you can't stop it or hold it to account." Almost 22 years later, this perception echoes as the United States under Donald Trump moves away from the post-World War Two rules-based international order.
Trump's America First policy uses economic sanctions, trade tariffs, and military might to force smaller nations to align with US interests. This approach threatens the middle powers—countries like Canada and Europe—that traditionally relied on multilateral cooperation. As Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney warned at Davos, "If you're not at the table, you're on the menu."
Trump's demand for Greenland and his public criticism of European NATO members show a blunt exercise of power. Though previous US presidents urged allies to increase defense spending, only Trump achieved significant commitments, raising European defense budgets from 2% to nearly 5% of GDP.
Experts see Trump's policies as a modern return to the Monroe Doctrine, a 19th-century strategy where the US claimed dominance over the Western Hemisphere. Historically, the US intervened repeatedly in Latin America to protect its interests, often ignoring the rules-based system it once helped establish.
Dr Christopher Sabatini from Chatham House notes, "There are patterns of intervention that go back to 1823, with the US acting as the 'international police power.'" Historian Jay Sexton adds, "Trump's approach absolutely is 'back to the future' with unpredictable, volatile power moves reminiscent of the 19th century."
This shift is testing Western allies, who now face the arbitrary exercise of US power firsthand. Despite attempts to flatter Trump, the Greenland episode united Europe and Canada in defense of sovereignty. Carney's call for middle powers to act together was met with a rare standing ovation at Davos.
The post-WW2 order brought peace, democracy, and prosperity, grounded in American power and international rules. But growing cynicism, inequality, and distrust in institutions fuel the rupture described by Carney. Today's middle powers must build new alliances and defend democracy amid a return to great-power politics.
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Tags:
Us foreign policy
Rules-Based Order
Middle Powers
Monroe Doctrine
Trump
International relations
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