Get ready for some good news on your wallet! India’s retail inflation, which usually makes things costlier, likely hit the lowest level in at least 10 years in October. A Reuters survey of 42 top economists shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation might have fallen to a tiny 0.48% in October, down from 1.54% in September. This is the lowest number since the current CPI method started in 2015. What’s causing this big cool-down? The main hero is falling food prices, especially vegetables. For six months straight, vegetable prices have dropped in double digits compared to last year! Since food makes up almost half of the CPI basket, this price drop hits inflation hard. Plus, last year’s October saw a big jump in vegetable prices, making this year’s comparison even easier. Rahul Bajoria, economist at BofA Securities, says, "Base effects are most supportive in this month, as it mirrors the sharp increase in vegetable prices we had seen in October last year... food inflation remains contained in India, and we see distinct and broad-based disinflation across the country." Another secret ingredient in this inflation recipe might be the Goods and Services Tax (GST) cut that started in late September. Some experts believe this tax slash helped bring prices down more. On top of that, India’s economy is doing great, growing nearly 8% in the April-June quarter. With inflation cooling, the Reserve Bank of India may cut interest rates again soon to help businesses and people borrow cheaper. But beware! Some economists warn this low inflation might be the bottom before prices rise again. Unusual rainfall may hit food supply, and higher import duties on pulses could push prices up next year. Bajoria says, "the risks appear skewed for a supply side shock to materialize, and with government raising import duties on pulses, several large sources of disinflation for food prices in 2025 might be on their last legs." Also, the way inflation is calculated is changing. Experts say the current CPI basket doesn’t fully match how much Indians spend on food now. Kanika Pasricha, chief economic adviser at Union Bank of India, states, "Does the inflation basket accurately reflect consumer expense needs? I would say it's partial." The government will shift to a new CPI basket early next year with less weight on food to reflect changing budgets better. Apart from food inflation, core inflation—which excludes food and fuel and shows true demand pressure—also eased slightly to around 4.3% in October. Meanwhile, wholesale prices also dropped by 0.6% year-on-year. So, if you’ve been wondering why your vegetable bills and other prices seem calmer lately, that’s the magic of a perfect storm: falling food prices, tax cuts, and a high base from last year. Is this the calm before a price storm? Stay tuned as next month’s data arrives!