October 7, 2025

Get ready for some weather twists! The India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monsoon withdrawal — shown in glowing yellow and gold on maps — will gather speed soon. In the next 3-4 days, the wet monsoon will start to leave North Peninsular India, including Maharashtra. But hold on, there’s a twist! The IMD also reports that the Bay of Bengal is hinting at a reverse monsoon — the North-East monsoon — starting to show signs. Meanwhile, the South-West monsoon will pull back from Gujarat, parts of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra, making way for drier skies. But wait! An intense western disturbance has crashed the party on Tuesday. This rare weather system formed over north Rajasthan and Haryana. It is fueled by moisture left behind by the depression from the powerful former cyclone Shakhti in the Arabian Sea. This combo is set to pour heavy rain over many parts of North-West India — hills and plains alike. Because of this, the monsoon's withdrawal in the northwest is on hold! Vishwas Chitale, a Fellow at Delhi's Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), shares some eye-opening stats. "During the first week of October, Punjab recorded about 415 percent excess rainfall; Himachal Pradesh 248 percent; while Haryana, Delhi NCR and Uttarakhand also experienced unusually heavy rain and hailstorms," he told BusinessLine. On Monday, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Punjab saw bursts of heavy to very heavy rainfall. Though rains might ease after Tuesday, IMD expects October rainfall to be above normal — around 115 percent of the long-period average. But there is a catch. Oktober rains can be a headache for farmers. A study by CEEW found more than half of India’s tehsils got heavier October rains in the last decade compared to previous years. Chitale warns, "This is concerning as October coincides with harvesting season for many rain-fed kharif crops, and unseasonal rain during this period can cause significant crop losses." Besides this, there are two rain-triggering troughs — one stretching from the Bay of Bengal over Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema to coastal Karnataka, and another from Odisha down to Telangana and south Chhattisgarh. Plus, cyclonic circulations spin around north-east Jharkhand, south Bangladesh, and the Bay of Bengal. The depression from the ex-severe cyclone hangs about 270 km southeast of Masirah (Oman), moving slowly east-south-east near the Arabian Sea. It is expected to weaken into a low-pressure area but remain watchful. Fishermen beware! The IMD has issued alerts advising them not to venture out along and off Kerala coast and Lakshadweep till Thursday; Karnataka coast on Wednesday; and Gulf of Mannar and Comorin area from Friday to Sunday. Stay tuned and stay safe as nature shows its powerful drama during this monsoon’s grand exit!

Read More at Thehindubusinessline →

Tags: Monsoon withdrawal, Imd forecast, Western disturbance, Rainfall, North-west india, Cyclone depression,