October 1, 2025

Mumbai is buzzing with hope! October may be a better month for Indian stock lovers. Why? Because history shows the Nifty, India’s big stock index, has jumped up in seven out of the last ten Octobers. But wait, it’s not all fireworks just yet. Experts are hinting that the Nifty won’t be running wild. Instead, it’s likely to dance within a tight spot between 24,300 and 25,400. Sriram Velayudhan, a senior VP at IIFL Capital Services, explains: "Factors like lack of clarity on tariff resolution, FII selling, and a busy primary market pipeline could also keep indices range-bound." The month gets hotter with giant IPOs from Tata Capital, LG, and WeWork ready to hit the market. This means lots of money could move around, but that also creates some uncertainty. Motilal Oswal’s data tells us that on average, the Nifty and Nifty 500 have gained about 0.6% and 0.7% respectively in October over the past decade. September was decent too, with gains of 0.8% and 1.2%. So the trend is promising. Chandan Taparia from Motilal Oswal is optimistic: "A recovery from current levels looks likely, given the recent correction, potential GST-led momentum, and festive-driven consumption." He sees support at 24,400 and hopes the Nifty can climb toward 25,250 soon. Crossing oceans, US markets like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones have shown mixed results in October, gaining only half the time over ten years. But Chandan points out, "While US indices witness mixed seasonality in October, such patterns have historically had limited spillover into Indian markets." The big question remains about tariffs. Velayudhan says, "In the event of progress on tariff resolution by the end of the month, a recovery rally cannot be ruled out." So keep your eyes peeled for any breakthroughs! To sum it up: October could be a month of cautious gains, some exciting IPO action, and close watch on tariffs. Will history repeat itself and gift investors a good October? Stay tuned to the market drama unfolding!

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Tags: Nifty, Stock market, October trends, Ipo, Tariffs, Fii selling,