September 9, 2025

Hold on to your hats, Social Security beneficiaries! Starting January 2026, your monthly Social Security checks may get a slight boost. Experts now forecast a 2.7% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), marking the fifth year in a row with an increase above 2.5%. This steady rise hasn’t been seen in this century, says a Motley Fool report. What does this mean for you? If the 2.7% increase sticks, the average retired worker could see their monthly Social Security check grow by about $54. Those getting disability or survivor benefits might get an extra $43 a month. Not bad for a small boost, right? Now, here’s where things get interesting: this bump might be tied to some bold trade moves by former US President Donald Trump. In April, Trump announced a 10% global tariff and raised "reciprocal tariffs" on countries with trade imbalances. Even though some tariffs were paused, these moves are expected to raise prices a bit, adding to inflation—the very factor used to figure out your Social Security raise. Experts from The Senior Citizens League and policy analyst Mary Johnson say Trump's tariffs likely helped push the inflation that leads to this 2.7% COLA, explains Motley Fool. So, how does the government decide on this COLA number? It looks at a special measure called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). But here’s a twist—they only check the inflation numbers from July through September each year. If prices went up compared to the same months the year before, Social Security benefits get a matching raise, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent. Expect the official announcement on October 15, 2025. But hold your excitement! Despite this raise, many seniors might still feel the pinch. The buying power of Social Security has dropped 20% from 2010 to 2024, notes The Senior Citizens League. That's because the CPI-W doesn’t fully capture how much older Americans actually spend, especially on medical care and housing. To make things tougher, Medicare Part B premiums are on the rise too. For 2026, these premiums may climb by 11.5%, hitting $206.20 a month. Since these premiums come right out of your Social Security check, many could see their raise vanish into health costs. With nearly 70 million people relying on Social Security, a 2.7% COLA is like a tiny drizzle in a desert. The rising cost of living still outpaces this small increase. Yet, it’s a small ray of relief amidst tough times. As Motley Fool says, many will recognize “a familiar feeling” of getting a bit more but still struggling to keep up. To recap: your Social Security check could go up by $54 monthly in 2026 due to inflation linked to tariffs and trade policies. But rising health costs might eat up that extra money. Keep an eye out for the official 2026 COLA announcement in October!

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Tags: Social security, Cola, 2026 increase, Tariffs, Inflation, Trump trade policy,